My prediction for 2008 will be that a tidal wave of innovation will converge and make TV on demand normal for the mainstream audience by early 2009.
What I mean by that is that the core audience will by 2009 no longer be the prisoner of schedule or geography. Mainstream viewers will find it easy to choose what they watch and when. As this happens, the money now invested in TV advertising and in supporting public TV will shift away - it will follow the audience.
Will this be the slow but sure death of the local stations as it is for much of the music industry and for much of the newspaper industry?
It will be for many I am sure.
Is there a way out - is there a way for a local station to not only survive but also thrive? I think so and I plan to write about what I think may be a way to respond to this challenge in the next 2 months.
But first, for all those that may doubt that TV on demand will make to the Mainstream in 2008, here are a examples of the power of the wave that is building offshore:
- Netflix and LG
- MSNBC and the Long Tail Olympics (3,000 hours of on demand coverage free online) - Xbox (10 million Members) as a delivery system
- Comcast - Project Infinity
Of course for Innovators and even Early Adopters, TV on demand is a reality today. They Torrent and use YouTube. The point I want to make is that when the early mainstream moves, the system will tip. I believe that when it does the shift will be faster and more complete that for music and for Newspapers.
Why?
Firstly, I believe that we are leaving a literal age and returning to a visual age. We may complain but it is a reality. So there is a deep longing for visuals.
Secondly much of the infrastructure that we will need to make the transition has been built and is common place. The iPod and the Big Screen Digital TV are in most households now - they only require an easy to use and trusted interface for the mainstream to shift to on demand. There is no long curve as there was for music of the development of the user devices. The use of computers is also well entrenched throughout society in North America. A local study we did at home here on PEI to see if we could reach the least well off families for child support told us that more than 50% of the least well of had a PC and internet access.
Thirdly vast numbers of people have a toe in the water and use You Tube and iTunes. The experience barrier is very low.
In 2008 a number of powerful, well financed providers will crack this and offer the mainstream a wide range of on demand Video choice at prices that make sense. The consumer will be freed from the schedule and from their local station. Even local cable providers will be threatened.
As it becomes clear that the audience is leaving, so will the money. My bet is that the money will leave as soon as it is clear that the system has tipped.
So what to do if you are a local Station? I am not just a Jeremiah and I hope that over the next few weeks I can offer some advice that will help. I think that there is a role and a business model for a local station - watch this space!
Link to original post